TWG VIII (The Matrix Has You) Day 4

[Lupin_the_3rd]

Seeing as both Jurseyrider and M-A-C are new to the game, I wouldn't think that they would instinctively defend each other if they were human. Knowing Jursey's past behavior towards alliances (see: Alain) were defensive, I wouldn't think that she would ally herself with M-A-C. This leaves me with either the impression that she has formed a human alliance with M-A-C to the point of him coming to her defense, or noob-like wolves coming to each others aid. Most likely, at most, only one of the two are wolves, as I doubt that the wolves would be working together this late in the game. However, they may not know what they are really doing as wolves, and think that they need to defend each other to insure that the wolves win. Either way, I'm going to wait to see how things unfold, as I have more belief that Jursey is human than wolf.

[Lupin_the_3rd]

By the way, I'm still concerned about the absence of Kilgamayan and Kefit...Kilga's last relevant post being on page 17, and Kefit's last relevant post (a vote) posted on page 22...and before that, god knows when.

The reason this concerns me is that, being a wolf in jTWG, Chromer's absence slipped by unnoticed, nearly until too late. Without their input, there is no way to get a read on them.

[Kilgamayan]

How long has it been since alain has gone off on someone for no good reason? I think it's been over 24 hours.

the world is going to end onoz

Anyway, I'm getting tired of the same people posting over and over again right now. I'm going to vote for nforcerbunchofnumbers since he seems to be reaching for something that isn't there in trying to incriminate Jursey.

When Tsetuto or whatever voted for LD, it was in the interest of throwing suspicion off of a wolf because another wolf was about to die. When Jursey pointed that out, it seemed like nforcer grabbed a previous time when she vote switched (to M-A-C, I think) and tried to force the same logic onto the situation. The thing is, that situation was vastly different to the one where Tsuteto voted LD because Jursey was in no immediate danger of being voted off.

Or maybe I misread/misremembered a whole bunch of stuff. x_X If such is the case I'll be glad to change my vote.

Anyway, since Squeak failed to post an updated list of who's left and I don't keep track on my own, here's one for myself and anyone else who needs it.

Afrobean
Alainbryden
blahblah18
CypherToorima
evilbutterfly
Kefit
Kilgamayan
JurseyRider734
Lupin_the_3rd
M-A-C
nforcer06164
Tps222
whorlichan

ps hi lupin

[blahblah18]

o snaps.. kilga's back and in full force, bringing it to the young gun...
nForcer, I may have cheered you before, but that's making some sense to me. Care to respond to the points he made?

[Anonymous]

Guys, as anyone who has ever chatted with me should know, I have school and work to deal with. This doesn't leave me with a lot of free time, with which there are generally other things I want to do.

Also, I have been rather quiet over aim this game. This is because in game VI I was having extensive aim conversations, and the result of a slew of them on day three (or was it four? It was the day that Alain was lynched) put me in the worst mood that I had been in in months. They completely destroyed the game for me, which lead to me basically going "I am seer. Please wolf me." I don't want that happening again this game, so I am limiting my aim conversations. If it is important that you discuss something with me (as it was last night when Alain contacted me concerning my vote) feel free to contact me, but please make sure it is important.

Anyway, although I was against him day one and most of day two, I am pretty sure that Alain is human now. As I understand it, he was largely responsible for the wave of votes that went against Tsuteto yesterday (if I am wrong about this, someone please let me know). The only real doubt in my mind comes from the possibility that the pyschic contacting eb may be fake - evilbutterfly, are you sure that whoever is contacting you is the genuine pyschic? I'm assuming that you are sure, since everyone else seems to be pretty sure of the results too, but I would still like to hear from you about this.

Right now, Jursey's vagueness and refusal to share information have me concerned. M-A-C just strikes me as more a stupid human than anything else (I would think a wolf, conscious that his votes need some sort of backing to appear genuine, would give a better reason than "Really I saw you had no votes so I just picked you. Simple as that."), so I'm not quite as concerned about him. nForcer also has my attention right now, but I would imagine that a wolf, right after losing half his team, wouldn't be quite so fast to jump into the spotlight.

I'll be checking this thread again sometime tomorrow evening to see what develops, so this vote isn't final or anything. I'm hoping that the conflicts of earlier today develop a bit more between now and then.

[Kefit]

*blink*

I have no idea how that happened, but the Guest post right above this post is mine.

[alainbryden]

The way I enterpret what just happened, M-A-C, under the assumption that he is a wolf, is taking advantage of a slight agreement in Jursey and his corresponding words by trying to defend Jursey in the hopes that he appears to be allied with her, giving us further reason to jump on her, and then there's a whole whack of ways he can attempt to remove any suspicion still left on him. I think we fell for this effect, whether intentional or not, because M-A-C is new and we assume that as a wolf, he wouldn't think twice before doing something like that.

Now if it means anything, It is my strong opinion that Jursey is not a wolf, and should not be lynched today. But now, I'll pull a quick review through the thread and see what I can peice together from the very useful psychic information.


hmm...
First kill Roopert, didn't know the guy, seems like an impersonal, no risk guardian human first day vote without connection.

Originally Posted by lightdarkness (who we know was a wolf)

Used same method as I did at BMS TWG, randomly highlighted someones name. Kefit

Wow. If the wolves were so into throwing in their fellow wolves names to avoid apparent connections to certain people, this could be fairly significant. Do you really think LD made his 'random' vote all that random? Especially since he was a wolf, he probably had strategy in this first day of the game, and the only strategy would be warding off the idea that he was friends with Kefit. This is actually a huge start in my mind, despite the fact that Kefit's post just now actually had me damn convinced that he was human.

Then again, in Kefit's defence, he contacted me before putting in his vote, he was planning to vote me, but switched Tsuteto. (5 minutes) Yeah, Kefit's vote wouldn't have necessarily gotten me lynched, but I have a feeling that if flypie hadn't voted Tsuteto as we were talking, he would have been much harder to convince.
5 alainbryden
5 Tsuteto
4 lightdarkness
then flypie votes Tsuteto
then Kefit votes Tsuteto.. could have tied it and made it knife in box.

The leftover incriminating evidence for Kefit here is that I suppose if Tsuteto were to lose the knife in box, the psychic, who is known, would know that Tsuteto were a wolf and everyone would immedeately stare at Kefit who waited until the last minute and made it happen, and Kefit wanted to avoid this suspicion for her certainly demised wolf mate. After all, I found it tremendously strange (although at the time I was releived) how incredibly easy Kefit's vote was to persue. All I did was quote some things that Tsuteto said, and hopefully said "Isn't that wolfy?" and he finished by agreeing. I'm sorry if I'm wrong Kefit, I don't mean to turn around and use your supporting me against you, but an idea is an idea.

This plus blah, who I trust most unhealthily, has Kefit high on his list too, so I'm assuming Kefit isn't anywhere near the alliance. Although, blah missed Tsuteto on his list that he posted, so we can't be too sure of his intuition.

Final word for Kefit, what really started all the suspicion was LD's first vote for you, what boosted it was how strangely the results of yesterday's events seemed to rely on your vote. That's where I'll leave it for now.


I'll take a pause now to post this, and then I'll continue on through the thread.

[alainbryden]

If someone wishes to see why I found Kefit surprisingly easy so sway, be my guest and read our whole conversation.

NEIGH006: you around?
Kefit42: I was just about to contact you
NEIGH006: okay
Kefit42: I am making my post as we speak
NEIGH006: okay
NEIGH006: Just making sure you got one in, I need all he help I can get
NEIGH006: Jurs is retarded
Kefit42: Right now I am voting for you. I am open to hearing why I shouldn't though
NEIGH006: fuck
NEIGH006: because there's 10 minutes left and I'm human
Kefit42: I know there are ten minutes left
Kefit42: Ten minutes is more than enough time to go over this
NEIGH006: okay
NEIGH006: one sec
NEIGH006: let me get off the phone
Kefit42: k
NEIGH006: meanwhile read a bit I guess
Kefit42: Basically, I am voting for you because of your hostile nature day two. It just seems really out of character to me
NEIGH006: then you don't know my character
Kefit42: LD is acting odd too, but he isn't giving quite as much of a bad feeling either
Kefit42: And you are right
Kefit42: I just know that you were quite friendly in TWG VI
NEIGH006: when someone says something wrong despite the overwhelming evidence I get pissed
Kefit42: Its not much to go on, I'll admit
Kefit42: Which is why I am willing to listen to you
Kefit42: I believe the current meaningful vote count is 5/5/3, You/Tsuteto/LD
NEIGH006: 5/5/4 Have you been following Tsuteto at all?
Kefit42: No
Kefit42: Fill me in on him, please
NEIGH006: I'm convinced for now that LD is human
NEIGH006: which is why I do not vote for him even though it would save me
Kefit42: Alright. He seems to be acting odd to me, but you have probably had more contact with him
Kefit42: However, that does nothing here
Kefit42: I either vote for you or Tsuteto
Kefit42: Everything else is meaningless
NEIGH006: I haven't talked to Tsuteto
NEIGH006: no one has
NEIGH006: he contacted me once, but said almost nothing
NEIGH006: then had to leave
NEIGH006: and he's been posting many votes never with any substantial evidence
Kefit42: hmm
NEIGH006: all voting for me has been because I'm "acting weird" or because the person doesn't like me.
NEIGH006: There's nothing to say I'm a wolf, because I really am not
NEIGH006: whilst there is other logical evidence for other people such as tsuteto or whorlican being a wolf
Kefit42: Do you have any good evidence against Tsuteto? Or any particular action of his which you could point out? I am not just going to blindly take your word for it.
NEIGH006: Yes
NEIGH006: and I have to go back to all my previous posts to find it
NEIGH006: much of my assurance comes from mutual suspicion from blah and evilbutterfly
NEIGH006: but if you insist let me go find it
NEIGH006: I just did a search and found that I never publicly gave my reasons for being suspicious of tsuteto
NEIGH006: I guess I just discussed it with Blah, eb and Lupin
Kefit42: ok
Kefit42: Discuss it with me then
NEIGH006: but I'll find the 2 posts that set me off
Kefit42: k
Kefit42: About six minutes left. I won't need more than a minute to make my post.
NEIGH006: WHY are you trying to change others' votes? If they want to vote for that person, they might as well. For all I know, the people that they are voting for are you companioned wolves, and thus you're trying to make them change their vote to someone else.

My vote, for now, reaches out to alainbryden.
NEIGH006: first false incriminating evidence
NEIGH006: I was defending my position and he said I was trying to change other's votes
Kefit42: Tsuteto said that?
NEIGH006: yes
NEIGH006: I'm going to vote for alainbryden. All I can tell is that his posts, while all in good intention, just lacked the flesh around the bones.
NEIGH006: that was his second reason for voting me
Kefit42: gah
Kefit42: I need to stop paying zero attention to people I don't know at all
NEIGH006: this was all when I already had 3 or more votes on me
NEIGH006: so baisically bandwagon without substance
NEIGH006: and then he sais things like "I never said I was bandwagoning, and whenever I do vote, I always make sure I give reason upon what I think is correct. And I know that some people get pissed that they are about to die, but it's when they over react beyond reason and they post things that isn't even half way thought through that's stupid." and I just don't know how he thinks he's trying to cover his back
Kefit42: wow
Kefit42: Alright, you have convinced me
NEIGH006: and finally "Second, it was your fault to begin with that made us pull towards you as being a wolf. You tried to do a double whatever thingy that I'm not even going to try and explain, which made us take towards you as a wolf more than anything else. What reason DON'T we have to think like that? Sure, some of us may be following, but in where you tried to gain allies, you only turned out to have them brought forth as friends. That's that. "
NEIGH006: this tells me "I'm voting because of that double whatever thingy that the other person voted you for"
NEIGH006: and it's all been more or less like that. Other than working me towards instalynch, he hasn't said much else
Kefit42: heh
Kefit42: That last comment of his made no sense XD
Kefit42: Anyway, I posted my vote
NEIGH006: okay, thanks. I can't guarantee you that he's a wolf, just that he's my second strongest hunch, and that as far as you can beleive me, I am human.
Kefit42: Of course, I am still pretty suspicious of you
Kefit42: You just gave me much better reasons to go after Tsuteto than you
NEIGH006: I can beleive that, but maybe it's for the best
NEIGH006: that's what I'm talking about
NEIGH006: everyone has the right to be suspicious of me
NEIGH006: but there are such better reasons
NEIGH006: to go after otehr people, I'm just always in the back of their heads
NEIGH006: *last sentance removed in the hope that kefit wasn't a wolf and I didn't just screw myself over :P*

[alainbryden]

Originally Posted by blahblah

just remember this people a "random" vote may not be as random as you think

Well said blah. With that finishing my last argument for now, I want people to know that I wasn't after an all out attack on Kefit, I just couldn't ignore what popped into my head when I saw that.

It's fun reading the conversation I had with LD posted on page 1, and looking at things that he said knowing he was a wolf. Just thought someone might be interested in skipping back and taking a look.

Originally Posted by Tsuteto

Meh, can't think straight after a night of karate. I'll see what the standings are tomorrow.

Originally Posted by alainbryden

oo_O he's been honing his agent fighting skills with Karate. WOLF!

BAM! who was right with that one biatch. Me!

Seriously though, here's a piece of logic I think we can follow, if the general conclusion is that nforcer is a wolf (which I don't think he is) then we can assume through this next quote I think that he isn't on Kefit's side. The same goes for vice-versa.

Originally Posted by nforcer

I'm also a little suspicious of Kefit. I don't have enough to go on him yet, but why would his first post be just to defend alain's "strategy"? He notes how the early defensive is suspicious, yet denies believing he may be a wolf. That strikes me as being somewhat odd....

But I also think it's important to note that Kefit only finished by defending my strategy. He really showed both sides, the parts of it that made me seem like a wolf, and the parts that made me seem human.

This is M-A-C's first post and my first piece of evidence on this guy. He seems to me like the type who would walk in LD's shadow if he were a wolf, and LD would have told him how at risk I was.

Originally Posted by M-A-C

Hey guys, school was rough. I'm just going to say alainbryden for now. He seems very suspicious.

He also timed that post right after nforcer which made it seem even more like bandwagonning. Bad judgement on his part. I assumed that a wolf would be more careful and wasn't suspicious of him for it at the time.

Originally Posted by M-A-C

I'm sorry if I am bandwagoning, but it's still early in the game. I usually change my vote 1 to 3 times during 1 night. I just think he sounds suspicious. In fact, if it gets 1 vote away from instalynch I'll end up changing my vote cause I'm not sure he's a wolf yet.

He actually kept his word as we'll see in a while.

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

Whorli's internet is acting up (which is odd, since we're in the same house and on the same wireless connection....), so she asked me to post this for her:

I'm very sorry that I haven't been around. I'll post more once I am able to access FFR from my computer.

I don't know about anyone else but that's partly what first put Whorlichan on my wolf list. Not too sure why, it's just a weird thing to do, to need someone to post an excuse so badly. I would think a human wouldn't be too concerned if they couldn't come back to make a second post due to stuff. It happens all the time, and it was only day one. Seems to have been too much effort just to excuse herself. Then she came back and posted her reasoning for her later vote for me, which is baisically the same as others, understandably enough. I was saying I was human so much, I must be a wolf.

Originally Posted by Whorlichan

There's so much talk about alain with his whining and whining that he is SO human and SO not going to be wolfed because all his ramble about being HUMAN is going to get him lynched. I think this is a case of "the lady doth protest too much"--he won't shut up about it and that is very suspicious to me. I need to reread the thread, but I think I may soon change my vote.

Originally Posted by lightdarkness

Ok, this is how I see it.
Kefit said that Alain is acting like he has a special role.
I have yet to see someone come in here, and defend him, so I'm guessing he isn't a mason.
So that means he could be the guardian/psychic, and we should keep him.... OR, he very well could be a wolf.
I think it's not a safe idea to lynch him day one, although he has certainly raised my brow.

This is probably the most human thing LD said, and was great wolf strategy. I never quite got past the instinct that he was human after this post, which is why I never voted for him to save myself, and instead went after Tsuteto when there wasn't much chance of him getting lynched over LD or I. I was surprised to find LD was a wolf.

Originally Posted by M-A-C

I'm going to lay off Alainbryden for a while. I have another suspicion about someone, but I'm not sure. So I'm changing my vote to....ummm Nothing. I can do that right? If not I'll just make a rondom vote.

Once M-A-C finds out that this wasn't possible, he changes his vote to Tsuteto.

Originally Posted by M-A-C

I would do that, but my computer has been running very slow lately. I'm afraid there might be an instalynch while I'm gone. So I guess I'll just vote for Tsuteto

In his defence, I'm not sure he would have TWG experience to think to vote Tsuteto just to remove later connection from him, if one of them were lynched, so this leans towards M-A-C being a human. On the other hand, he could have been told to do this, if the wolves were planning an overall strategy to look disconnected (which is backfiring for them right now) in which case, there was no risk for removing his vote from me, because I had 5 votes on me at the time I beleive, and no one else had more than 2. Most were sure I was a gonner.

Further in his defence, LD goes calling him stupid and such, and it just doesn't look like M-A-C and LD had anything going.

Originally Posted by lightdarkness

I'm not sure if you meant to say that, or if it was shere stupidity.

Instalynch's are almost impossible on day one, unless someone admits they are a wol... agent

Then again, LD fooled me big time in this game, so I don't know if I can make a valid assumption that they aren't together here.

nforcer does alot of talking around here but I can't pin him for anything out of the ordinary. I suggest going back and looking at it yourselves and making some opinions of your self.

After this Jursey posts our convo, I get really pissed, and chaos went down.

Originally Posted by evilbutterfly

Alain has a crush on Jursey? Interesting...

I don't know how you got that, or how I missed that first time around, but I hate you :P Whorli votes for me because even if I'm a human, I'm awful at it. LD calls me stupid... he's dead. Tsuteto reminds me that he voted for me, and that I missed it. I post another 500 words of evidence and insults... then there's the bulk of my evidence for leading on the Tsuteto lynching, but we already know he was a wolf, so I don't need to show that. Then everyone who talks for a while after that is either dead, or Lupin and Blah, who I don't feel need attention. Kilga gets about half of her posts for this thread in about a Statistical sidetrack after this.

Everything turns around and there's some interesting things to pull out of here, but this has already taken me close to two hours and I'm only at the end of day one. Hopefully this has helped people expand the range of people in their voting mind to the less heard. I would have liked to look at more of kilga's much more ambiguous posts, and looked more into nforcer but I have to get going. Later.

[Kilgamayan]

tl;dr

And stop multiposting. There's an edit button for a reason.

[blahblah18]

a) you're not supposed to edit in TWG threads, multiposting is allowed
B) both kilga and kefit are guys

[Kilgamayan]

Since when are we not supposed to edit things? That's the stupidest goddamn rule I've ever heard. I edit all the time to fix spelling and grammar mistakes, or if I come up with another idea, and I've been doing it since my first game at BMS.

[blahblah18]

well the idea is that posts are a record of what has happened, and if I go back and erase all my day 1 posts now, or edit them to fit with what's happened, then that we would rather not have.

[blahblah18]

Ok, so here goes my first roudn of thought... There have been some good posts made today. nForcer using good logic to support a vote on jursey... jursey acting somewhat suspicious... kilga bringing it back to nForcer with real good logci too.. Kefit supporting what nForcer said.. Alain posting 2,000 pages of stuff, seemingly coming to a conclusion about Kefit but nto actually voting him.
Me, personally what I drew from Alain's post, is the one guy that seemed to have slipped through the cracks. How did M-A-C escape any further scrutiny then the beginning of Alain's post, which to me made really good sense in the idea that he would get close to Jurs to be able to use her.. again I'm going to refer to TWG IV and think that for now M-A-C is my vote, although I would like to hear from both him and nforcer at some point today, because nForcer, you're only a drop behind him on my suspicions.

[evilbutterfly]

Kilga, we're not supposed to edit posts for TWG. That's suspicious, they say.

Now, a few things. Nobody should suspect Jurs at all. She is the person that LD "copy and pasted his PM to" in order to convince her of his humanity. It worked, too, but blah turned him in for it and he got booted. Thus, it's safe to assume that both blah and especially Jursey are human.

As far as Jurs's evidence goes. The people who are allied together at this point have it narrowed down pretty far. There are some unknowns, but we have talked to everybody and have ideas as to who is a wolf. Between talking to them and by me telling her we think they're probably human, the alliance and I have managed to talk Jurs away from Alain and MAC somewhat. Of course, we could be wrong and they may be the last 2 wolves, we don't know. So, it may seem somewhat suspicious of them backing each other up, but it's mostly because we guide people and lead them after people we suspect more. Jurs probably didn't say anything (though it would have done no harm) about evidence because she must have felt that saying "well some alliance members told me he was human" might put her in danger of wolfing, or may have given a false sense of security if MAC really is a wolf. Jurs is scared of being wolfed just like the rest of us, especially with me and blah choosing by coin flips. I just wanted to clear everything up, though, so people wouldn't vote off somebody who we know is human.

And speaking of who I suspect, I'm thinking I'll go for nforcer. I've voted for him a few times before, and his push to kill Jurs would make a ton of sense if he was a wolf (because he would know what LD knew, and would know that Jurs was in the alliance, because if you didn't know, LD was almost in the alliance until he cheated and we found him to be a wolf). He probably saw that Jurs and MAC were cool with each other, assumed they were in cahoots, and figured he'd cast doubt on both in the hopes that one of them gets lynched. Good strategy for a wolf, maybe, but it won't work, pal.

[M-A-C]

Originally Posted by nforcer

M-A-C defends Jursey weakly

Woh Woh Woh. Did I say I was defending her? I don't believe saying that I was. You didn't know why Jursey would change her vote so I gave you a reason. I don't really think that qualifies as defending.

Originally Posted by nforcer

Sorry for the double post, guys, but M-A-C, I clearly did not change my vote.

I'm not stupid, I can see that. I was just saying mabey Jursey thought you were going to vote for her so she voted for you.

[Afrobean]

To be honest, I don't have much suspicion on anyone. I do however have a hunch about Whorli. Her boyfriend, also known as Tass, IM'd me early in the game, day one if I remember correctly. He had very little to say to me and I thought maybe he had an ulterior motive. I believe I was right, because at one point, he mentioned that he knew Whorli was human. Very little was said after this. Tass doesn't even talk to me on AIM; the only time we ever have really was that stupid convo from last game. I feel that Tass was trying to get trust in his girlfriend who is an agent. Because of this, I'm voting for whorlichan.

[QreepyBORIS]

Originally Posted by M-A-C

I'm not stupid, I can see that. I was just saying mabey Jursey thought you were going to vote for her so she voted for you.

Lol derz no1 n@med thought in dis gaem

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by QreepyBORIS

Lol derz no1 n@med thought in dis gaem

Qreepy, get the heck out. You're not in the game. Also, if I remember correctly, posting in this thread when you aren't signed up gives you a permaban from TWG. GG Qreepy.

[evilbutterfly]

Looks like Qreepy won't be playing in another TWG for a long time.