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The chance of an AAA Posted on: August 19, 2008, at 08:24:36pm Imagine that you are 99.9% certain of hitting each arrow in a song, perfectly. A song has 500 arrows. What is the chance of missing a perfect?(over the duration of playing the song) |
Posted at 8:38pm on August 19th, 2008
5.0000005%
yay for calculators... okay i kno its wrong but w/e im uber bored rite now.
Posted at 8:40pm on August 19th, 2008
almost got it, but not quite
Posted at 3:30pm on August 20th, 2008
Hm, do you mean missing exactly one perfect or missing at least one?
Posted at 3:33pm on August 20th, 2008
I mean not getting a perfect, It could be an average, a good, or a miss. the combined chance of those 3 being(0.1%)
Posted at 9:30am on August 21st, 2008
My answer is around 39.5%, but that seems far too high so I must be wrong.
Posted at 11:45am on August 21st, 2008
Nope. =)
Posted at 4:43pm on August 24th, 2008
i love statistics!
well this is a binomial situation (500,.999,499) with success defined as getting a perfect on an arrow and the probability of success being .999. the number of trials is 500, because there r 500 arrows. using minitab, i got .3034 or 30.34%
haha sorry for the novel, but ap stats made me like that. im bored as fuck!
Posted at 4:55pm on August 24th, 2008
Interesting, Not the answer I had. I only used the basic rules for probabilities to work it out. My Calculation could be wrong but Thats not the answer I was looking for.
And thanks for posting, not need to appologize =D
Posted at 6:24pm on August 24th, 2008
I have now looked at binomial situations and I believe that you are correct. Your answer (30.34%)is the probability of getting exactly 499 perfect. Well done, go to the top of the class! =D. The probability of geting 499 or less (not AAAing it) is 39.36% and so The probability of getting the AAA would be 60.64%.
Goldspark, you were closer to the probability of not AAAing. Which was what I was looking for, but my question did not specify.
Posted at 5:50pm on August 25th, 2008
each note u get 999/1000 of a chance per note
put that into 500 power and u get
u got a 6.06% chance after the end of song of 500 notes without a AAA
Posted at 5:51pm on August 25th, 2008
SIMPLE ALGEBRA 2 PEOPLE
Posted at 6:00pm on August 25th, 2008
WOT U TALKIN' ABOUT FF?!!!
Posted at 6:09pm on August 25th, 2008
I know that .999^500 is .64, and that is the chance of the AAA.
If you were only 99% certain of getting each arrow, then the chance of the AAA would be much lower, and you would be much more likely to fail than get it. (.99^500 = .0066) which is 0.66%. Thats less than 1% chance of getting and AAA if you are 99% certain of each arrow!
Posted at 6:26pm on August 25th, 2008
NO NO YOUR MATH IS OFF
first off your screwing with the decimal place too much and its messing around.
Lemme do the math again to clarify
99.9% chance or 999/1000
500 notes *power to 500 of 999/1000*
that comes out to 0.606 roughly
thats your chance of not getting a AAA since u got a 99.9% chance of getting a perfect on each and every note
This is all probabilities, so with 500 99.9% chances, chances are u got a 60.6% of getting a AAA *srry decimal place was off on my part* which means u got a 39.4% chance to miss 1 or more notes.
Though the % is extremly high, ure dealing with a hypothetical problem, another way of putting this is
Rolling a 1000 side dice, and rolling a 1000 makes u lose. U gotta roll it 500 times, wats the chance ure gonna lose? 39.4%
Posted at 6:32pm on August 25th, 2008
btw, when u deal with powers, even the slightest change to numbers to a power of ginormous proportions can and will lead to different answers, .999 and .99 are very broad spectrums, and u will get a really bad number if u had to roll a 100 sided dice and not hit a 100 with 500 rolls then the 1000 sided dice.
Proportions and wat not, I already answered the question
"imagine that you are 99.9% certain of hitting each arrow in a song, perfectly.
A song has 500 arrows.
What is the chance of missing a perfect?(over the duration of playing the song)"
the answer is 39.4% through the duration of the song of 500 notes.
.1% is a really big number in ratios dealing with powers like 500.
0.001^500 = 1e-1500 (I really dont wanna explain wat e stands for >.>)
Posted at 7:00pm on August 25th, 2008
What I meant to say was:
"I know that .999^500 is .6064......
Just a typo, I agree with you on that.
Posted at 7:06pm on August 25th, 2008
I know what e (euler's number) is thanks =D
Its 2.718 to 4 significant figures and is the number who's natural logarithm is 1.
Posted at 4:50pm on August 27th, 2008
mi head huirtsssss
Posted at 6:19pm on August 27th, 2008
the anwser is dendrite